This tariff war started by U.S. President Donald Trump is crazy and so dangerous it could lead to another Great Depression like that of 1929-39.
Unemployment then reached 25 per cent in North America; trade between countries was at a near standstill. Family businesses went under or sold for 10 cents on the dollar.
Life was terrible except for the wealthy.
The planet is on target for a repeat, thanks to the Trump attitude.
Observers have noted that a burst of patriotism in Canada has turned the Trump tariff tirade into rare Canadian unity.
Talk is cheap, especially when politicians mouth the words. Cracks in the unified opposition to the U.S. by premiers have appeared.
Alberta and Saskatchewan premiers both strongly oppose tariffs on export of oil and natural gas to the U.S.A.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe doesn’t want export tariffs on potash. Remember the old story about which mouse will bell the cat?
What happened to the pledge of unity?
Farm leaders are upset because Ottawa won’t jump to the defence of canola growers, just slapped with a 100 per cent tariff by China.
With less than three per cent of the population and no MPs on the federal government side, Saskatchewan can’t expect to be first in line.
While most Canadians agree with new dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. imports the facts indicate they will have little impact on the U.S. economy.
The U.S. imports only amount to 15.8 per cent of GDP while exports make up 10.9 per cent of GDP.
Americans buy more than they produce, simply because cost of producing is so much higher from wages and living standards.
With tariffs, Trump will cost America 600,000 jobs, according to the American Tax Foundation, and personal income after taxes will fall by 17.2 per cent.
Trump’s gains, if these tariffs stick, will amount to $222 billion in revenues to grant that big tax cut.
Canada’s biggest hopes for an end to tariffs lie in three areas — the companies listed on the S and P 500 stock index, U.S. auto industry and the court system.
Revenues by S and P 500 companies in 2022 were $17.1 trillion – amounting to over half the nation’s GDP.
And 28 per cent of revenue comes from exports. Canada has to hope pressure from the S and P companies once tariffs bite will inspire change.
The auto industry is Canada’s second hope, once the U.S. experiences damage from higher car prices, lost jobs and lost revenues.
The court system is another impediment to Trump. We don’t know how the Republican majority in the Supreme Court will handle these matters when asked to determine them.
The Trump forcefulness could be tempered in 2027 after mid-term Congressional elections if the Democrats regain control of the house.
Today the Republican-controlled Congress turns a blind eye when Trump breaks laws passed by Congress to benefit Americans.
Ron Walter can be reached at [email protected]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of this publication.
