MOOSE JAW — Agriculture faces a challenging year in 2025, according to Farm Credit Canada.
The agriculture and agri-food lender points to major trends to watch closely this year — economic growth, tariffs, trade, the Canadian dollar value, Chinese barriers to canola exports, hog export barriers and no cow herd rebuilding.
FCC expects high imposed tariffs are a negotiating tactic and will be removed.
Lower population growth will add to an estimated 1.77 per cent GDP growth says the Bank of Canada. Two to three per cent growth is more usual.
Where the Canadian dollar goes is crucial. Resting at 70 cents in January, now at 69 cents US it was75 cents in 2023.The lower dollar boosts farm income.
What FCC didn't point out was agriculture's dependence on a low Canadian dollar value.
About $4.32 of that $13.40 a bushel canola price comes from exchange. About $1.77 of that $5.40 a pound steer price comes from exchange.
The exchange gain on $8-a bushel-wheat amounts to $2.43. That represents a lot pf profit even expense recovery from exchange on the US dollar.
Trump's tariffs have provided slightly better commodity prices, as long as there is an export market.
American farmers are voicing concerns that their outlook is bleak but all other countries do well due to lower valued currencies. The U.S. farmers want action want action on this file.
