MOOSE JAW — Holy Trinity Catholic School Division expects student enrolment to decrease by 23 students by 2029 compared to today’s numbers, with low birth rates in 2022 and 2023 contributing to that decline.
There were 2,466 students enrolled by Sept. 30, 2024, while a new five-year projection predicts that number will be 2,491 by the same date in 2025, 2,490 in 2026, 2,496 in 2027, 2,475 in 2028 and 2,443 in 2039.
Overall, from 2024 to 2039, the division expects 218 fewer students in its schools, a decrease of 8.84 per cent.
Meanwhile, the division’s total revenues as of Sept. 30, 2024, were $30.5 million, while the five-year projection predicts revenues will increase to $34.3 million by 2029.
Holy Trinity’s total expenses as of Sept. 30, 2024, were $30.8 million, while the five-year projection predicts expenses to increase to $34.3 million by 2029.
Provincial grants are based on enrolment figures and are the division’s largest revenue source. That money is expected to increase to $28.4 million in 2029 from $24.6 million this year.
Division administration presented the five-year enrolment and financial projections report during the recent board meeting.
Enrolment decline
The school division’s enrolment projections are based on information from a software program called Baragar Demographics, which considers birth rates, immigration and capture rates and provides an enrolment projection annually, explained CFO Curt Van Parys.
The most recent projection indicates that Holy Trinity should see a slight increase of 25 more students this September, leading to a projected enrolment of 2,491 pupils, he continued. Enrolments should hold steady for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 school years before beginning a gradual decline starting in 2028-29, reaching 2,443 students by September 2029.
The projected enrolment by that year would be 23 fewer students compared to the September 2024 enrolment of 2,466, the CFO noted.
“Of concern are birth rates, with 2022 having the fewest births of any year on record — as indicated by Baragar — and 2023 births being only marginally higher,” said Van Parys.
Enrolment, economic conditions and provincial funding support are the main drivers of school divisions’ funding, while administration projects that Holy Trinity will require a funding increase of roughly three per cent annually over the next five years to sustain current programs and operations, he added.
Between 2005 and 2014, the number of births to women residing within the school division boundary averaged 15 more per year, peaking at 701 births in 2014, the report said. Since then, the number of births has trended lower at an average of 20 fewer births per year.
Students currently enrolled in pre-kindergarten to Grade 12 were born between 2007 and 2020, during which time the number of births per year averaged 624, the document continued. Over the past three years, however, births have averaged 540 per year, a decrease of 84 births or 13.46 per cent compared to those 18 years.
“Even if the number of births does not decrease further, and as these smaller cohorts enter and progress through school, the likely result will be a decrease in enrolment,” the report said.
The report added that based on the 2021 national census, there were significantly fewer women in the 25-to-34-age group living within the school division region compared to the 2016 census, a decrease of 233 women or a drop of 6.9 per cent.
The next Holy Trinity board meeting is Monday, March 17.
