TORONTO — The prospect of a trade war with the United States has some Canadian film and TV crews bracing for potential impacts that could help some parts of the sector while simultaneously hurting others.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened a 25 per cent tariff on most Canadian exports, a move Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said would be met with counter-tariffs on select U.S. imports. Such measures are widely expected to further devalue the loonie — already hovering near lows unseen since 2003 — while raising costs for everyday goods including groceries, clothes and furniture.
For someone like Toronto caterer David Mintz, the combined impact of a lower loonie and more expensive produce could be crushing.
"Eighty per cent of the produce we buy comes from the U.S.," says Mintz, who has worked on Prime Video's "The Handmaid's Tale" and "Reacher."
"We'd either have to absorb that cost or pass it on to our clients."
Mintz also worried that a broad made-in-USA sentiment south of the border could lead to fewer U.S. productions shot in Canada.
"The truth is our business is 100 per cent reliant on U.S. productions," he says, noting that Canadian productions tend to have less money to spend on his company's services.
While Canadian-backed shows that shoot in Canada face potential blows from both a lower loonie and higher costs, U.S. shows made in Canada — such as CBS' "Star Trek: Discovery" and Paramount Plus' "Mayor of Kingstown" — could offset any jump in expenses if the exchange rate favours the U.S., says Toronto stylist and costume buyer Joanne Jin.
Still, she says there's lots of uncertainty in how economic measures could drive up costs for key set supplies used by local crews, including clothing, textiles and equipment.
“All of us are worried because it's going to impact our lives in so many different ways,” says Jin, who's worked on "Star Trek: Discovery" and "Mayor of Kingstown."
Jin sees a potential upside for Canadians who work on U.S. productions, musing that the weakened dollar could encourage more American companies to shoot their projects in Canada, where they also get tax credits.
“If you could do a project for cheaper, that's a better bang for your buck. So Canada will be an even more attractive place for them to do projects,” she says.
“Crew members are optimistic. I have a good feeling that it's going to be a busy year for us.”
As of Thursday, the Canadian dollar hovered around 70 cents U.S., recovering slightly after dipping below 68 cents U.S. earlier in the week.
Often dubbed "Hollywood North," Canada has long been a bustling production hub for U.S. film and television projects.
But foreign productions in Canada dropped in 2023-24 to $4.73 billion in overall expenditures due to the Hollywood strikes, down 26 per cent from $6.65 billion a year earlier, according to a report by the Canadian Media Producers Association
A trade war could boost foreign production in Canada if it depreciates the loonie, says Paula Fletcher, chair of Toronto's film, television and digital media advisory board.
"The lower dollar has been very healthy for our industry. And we don't know, it may even go lower, which would be bad for the country, but it's always positive for the film industry," she said Tuesday.
"When our dollar has started to rise, that's had a negative impact on production in the past."
Fletcher spoke at Pinewood Toronto Studios, where Amazon MGM Studios hosted an event to mark one year since signing a long-term lease for 160,000 square feet of sound stages and office space at the facility.
"The Boys" and "Reacher" are among the Prime Video series shot there.
She suggested Canada’s film and TV industry wouldn't be hit as hard by tariffs as other sectors, since it’s driven by people rather than raw materials.
"We're not building automobiles. We're not digging up potash. We have a film industry, which is more of a service industry, so it's kind of floating on top of the manufacturing sector that will be really harmed with these tariffs."
Jin notes Trump named actors Sylvester Stallone, Jon Voight and Mel Gibson "special ambassadors" to bring business back to Hollywood lost to "foreign countries," making some in the Canadian industry wary.
Media analyst Greg Taylor says the U.S. would be "shooting itself in the foot" if it scaled back productions in Canada.
"It's going to be more expensive. It does not help the U.S. at all," says Taylor, a professor of communications, media and film at the University of Calgary.
Taylor worries U.S. tech giants may use Trump's economic threats to force concessions in the Online Streaming Act, which requires foreign streaming platforms to allocate five per cent of their Canadian revenues to a fund supporting Canadian content.
Several streamers — including Netflix, Apple and Disney — have challenged the order in the Federal Court of Appeal.
"I would suspect that behind the scenes, they're putting a lot of pressure on the government in Washington to try and do something to change what's happening in Canada," he says.
Taylor notes that several tech titans have been chummy with Trump, pointing to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Apple leader Tim Cook taking prime seats at his inauguration.
"I think streamers based out of the U.S. see their moment right now. They all want something for their support (for Trump). I think part of it is to try to kill these national-based policies that are popping up."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 6, 2025.
Alex Nino Gheciu, The Canadian Press
