OTTAWA — After a brutal election night Monday, the NDP finds itself without a leader or official party status — but with the prospect of holding the balance of power with a minority Liberal government.
There is a “paradox” in the party’s situation, said Karl Bélanger, former NDP strategist and president of Traxxion Strategies.
“Even though they have had their worst electoral result in history … they keep the balance of power and with that, they can potentially negotiate some gains with the Liberal party," he said.
The Canadian Press decision desk is projecting Prime Minister Mark Carney will lead a minority Liberal government. The Liberals have been elected in 169 ridings, three short of the 172 needed for a majority.
With those numbers, the seven NDP MPs the party has elected could be enough to keep a minority government in power. The party had 24 MPs when Parliament was dissolved.
Pollster David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said the NDP had their worst performance ever, both in terms of seats and the popular vote.
“They find themselves in a very weak position, despite perhaps having the balance of power in Parliament,” he said. “A very small caucus could still be playing an oversized role going forward.”
A supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP kept former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government in power from 2022 to 2024.
Former leader Jagmeet Singh, who was behind that agreement with the Liberals, resigned Monday night after he lost his seat.
That leaves the party searching for a new leader. On Tuesday, B.C. Premier David Eby said he's not interested in the job.
“I hope that someone steps up to run for the federal party that has a commitment to bringing Canadians together, a commitment to rebuilding the party and ensuring the federal NDP can play an important role in the future of Canada," he told a news conference.
Eby would not say who he thinks should take on the role but acknowledged it's going to be a "challenging job" after a "tough night" for the party.
Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles said that while this was a “very tough election” with a “difficult result," the party is sending some strong MPs back to Parliament.
But with fewer than 12 seats, those MPs will be heading back without official party status. Bélanger said that means that the party will have fewer resources, fewer questions during question period, and fewer seats on committees.
“It makes it very difficult for the NDP to get the oxygen it needs to bounce back from the result they had last night,” he said.
The NDP will lose funding for its research units, which Parliament provides to “recognized” parties with 12 or more MPs.
Bélanger said the NDP could negotiate for party status in exchange for supporting the Liberals.
“The problem, of course, is that the NDP is in no way, shape or form in a position to trigger an early election if they were put in that spot,” he said. “They don't have a very strong hand.”
The party should also move quickly to choose a leader because it’s not clear how long the minority government could last, Bélanger said.
“There will be pressure within the party to go through a soul-searching exercise and try to redefine its role and its raison d'être," he said. "But you cannot spend two years doing that, because the election could be coming very soon.”
—With files from Wolfgang Depner in Victoria, Liam Casey in Toronto and Kyle Duggan
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 29, 2025.
Anja Karadeglija, The Canadian Press
