MOOSE JAW — The Moose Jaw area can expect above-normal spring runoff this year because of an above-normal snowpack and a wetter-than-normal fall, according to the Water Security Agency (WSA).
This above-normal spring runoff means flows from snowmelt runoffs will exceed the natural channel capacity in some areas of west-central Saskatchewan, with the frequency of these expected flows a one-in-five-year event, the WSA said in its 2025 Spring Runoff Report, released on March 14.
“Above-normal precipitation prior to runoff — especially if it occurs as rainfall — and/or a faster-than-normal melt could result in significantly higher runoff than presently forecast,” the report noted.
As of March 1, Buffalo Pound Lake was at 509.3 metres in height, with WSA forecasting that it will peak at 509.8 metres during runoff levels; normal summer levels are 509.4 metres.
In comparison, the lake’s levels were 509.6 metres last year, while the highest “extreme” level ever recorded was at 511.45 metres in 1974.
This higher-than-normal runoff could be good for the Moose Jaw area, as this part of Saskatchewan — stretching from Maple Creek to Estevan — faces a high risk and extreme risk of drought this year, the WSA predicts.
Last year was generally drier than normal across the province, and following a heavy rainstorm in September 2024, the remainder of autumn was drier than normal almost everywhere, the report said.
With the two months leading to freeze-up dry, most of central, northern and southeastern Saskatchewan went into the winter with drier-than-normal soil moisture conditions, the document continued.
“Two mid-November snowstorms brought 10 to 80 centimetres of snow across Saskatchewan, with east-central regions receiving the highest amount,” the WSA said.
These early snowfalls could lead to two possible outcomes:
- Areas where the snow partially melted and refroze may experience reduced infiltration capacity in the spring because of frozen and sealed-off topsoil
- In regions where early snowfall remained, insulation from the snowpack may have reduced frost penetration, leading to higher spring infiltration and lower runoff
Even the federal government — through Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada — predicts that southern and west-central Saskatchewan is facing drought conditions, with the Moose Jaw “abnormally dry” as of Jan. 31.
Meanwhile, the WSA says lakes in the Qu’Appelle River Basin are expected to be in normal upper operating zones following the spring melt, while runoff has started in the Old Wives Lake basin.
Across the remainder of the latter basin, the runoff potential is likely to be “near normal,” while so far, the runoff response has been near-to-slightly-above normal, the agency said.
The WSA added that Lafleche Dam made early releases of water to clear the river downstream of ice and snow in anticipation of the need to release more water this spring, while Thomson Lake is expected to be full following the spring runoff this year.
